CONTRIBUTORS
Indraneel Karlekar, Ph.D
Global Head of Research and Strategy, Clarion Partners
Pedro Nino
Head of Industrial Research and Strategy
Clarion Partners
Andrew Urbanczyk
Research Officer,
Clarion Partners
Preview
In March 2024, a large container ship struck the 47-year-old Francis Scott Key Bridge, causing a collapse. The cleanup and rebuilding of the bridge is estimated to cost at least US$2 billion and is expected to take 18 months to several years to complete. While some level of cargo flow is expected to resume, physical constraints remain.
In this paper, we look at the impact of the bridge collapse and how this will be heavily dependent on how long shipping traffic is disrupted during the full repair of the bridge and channel.
The impact is still unknown until a timeline for full reopening is announced. However, given the extra capacity available at other nearby East Coast ports, in which many ships are already stopping, there should not be major disruptions to the container trade. Temporary channels are currently being created, and officials expect the full shipping channel to be operational by late May 2024.
The automobile sector is most likely to face potential bottlenecks, though investment at other East Coast ports should limit the impact. From a traffic perspective, the bridge collapse will result in redirected traffic toward I-95 and I-895 potentially increasing congestion on those highways. The impact of this will likely be limited, however, since the bridge has a significantly lower traffic count than other major arteries.
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