Insights

ClearBridge Investments: The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard remains firmly in green expansionary territory; despite AI labor fears, supportive fiscal and monetary policy should power the US economy and corporate earnings in 2026.

Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses key spending, employment and other policy factors he is following as we look forward to 2026.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the latest US economic outlook and provides insights on the Recession Risk Dashboard. Despite a federal government shutdown delaying official data releases, Jeff shares the alternative indicators he's using and why he thinks they point to continued economic resilience, strong corporate earnings, and a resilient consumer.

ClearBridge Investments believes the probability of a pickup in layoffs tipping the economy into a recession remains low. They remain confident that US economic growth will continue to moderate but stay on a healthy trajectory.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments discusses the potential for Fed interest-rate cuts and why he's leaning a bit hawkish. He also compares today's market dynamics to the late 1990s tech boom and shares his thoughts on the Magnificent Seven and global equity performance.

Whether a stock market bubble is forming has become a key debate for investors. ClearBridge Investments believes a boom may be ahead, driven by a favorable policy mix and a healthy consumer supporting earnings growth.

ClearBridge Investments: Whether a recent fall for the US dollar portends a regime shift toward systematic weakness has key ramifications for global equity leadership.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments shares his take on the August payroll figures and reviews the Recession Risk Dashboard which is currently holding with an overall green signal. He also covers why he thinks we may see three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

ClearBridge Investments: We believe the underlying health of the labor market remains solid, despite the recent shocks. As the impacts from these shocks fade, the resilience of the US economy will once again shine through as we move into 2026 in the form of a pickup in job creation.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, ClearBridge Investments' Jeff Schulze provide his insights on the US labor market–reviewing the latest job report and past payroll revision figures. And, he covers why his views about potential Fed rate cuts in 2025 have shifted.

ClearBridge Investments: With clarity on tariffs emerging, a major source of macro and market uncertainty is waning. Combined with a tax and fiscal boost from new legislation, corporate animal spirits are poised to pick up.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, we hear from Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments on the chances of a recession, why investors may need to recalibrate their views on what a normal level of job growth is in the United States, and he reviews what's happening on the tariffs and trade front.

ClearBridge Investments believes positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, ClearBridge Investments’ Jeff Schulze reviews the two indicator upgrades on the Recession Risk Dashboard and shares his views on tariffs, US Treasuries, and why equity markets may see some choppiness over the next few months.

ClearBridge Investments believes periods of substantial uncertainty could offer an opportunity for individuals and professionals alike to gain an investment edge by lengthening their time horizon.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments discusses the US labor market, reviewing the April jobs report and sharing his thoughts on GDP growth for the year. He also provides an update on the Recession Risk Dashboard and the potential opportunities within US equities.

ClearBridge Investments: Trade truces with China and the United Kingdom are just what the economy and equity markets needed to neutralize the effects of elevated policy uncertainty.

ClearBridge Investments believes the degree to which a recent plunge in “soft” survey data, which typically occurs during recessions, translates into weakness in actual “hard” data in the coming months will be crucial in determining the health of the economy.

On this month’s Talking Markets podcast, we speak with Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments about the updates in the Recession Risk Dashboard and learn why he believes the odds of a potential recession have increased to 50%. And, he discusses the current position of the Federal Reserve, provides his base case on tariffs and covers how diversification is making a comeback.

ClearBridge Investments: The economy and markets are entering uncharted waters and policy uncertainty appears likely to remain elevated in the near term. This only further underscores the benefits of diversification for equity investors.

ClearBridge Investments believes the outlook for infrastructure in 2026 remains robust, driven by the accelerating demand for power and data fueled by AI.

ClearBridge Investments: Ambitious capital spending on generative AI projects by hyperscalers, which we view as a once-in-a-decade cycle, represents a meaningful tailwind for technology infrastructure providers supplying the picks and shovels to run large language models.

ClearBridge Investments believes accelerating policy-driven investment and AI-driven data center growth are unlocking a multi-decade growth opportunity for listed utilities globally.

ClearBridge Investments: Despite recent strong performance for listed infrastructure versus equities, infrastructure valuations are still attractive on a risk adjusted basis, and could have room to run.

ClearBridge Investments: A new regime of tariffs will likely create the need for more infrastructure to support reshoring, while utilities' lack of exposure to international trade may bolster their defensiveness.

ClearBridge Investments: Demand for renewable energy will continue to be strong regardless of policy changes due to factors such as AI, as we think the market overlooks the changing electricity demand for renewable energy.

ClearBridge Investments believes the drivers of strong performance for midstream energy infrastructure in 2024 look to be just as relevant for 2025 and beyond.

ClearBridge Investments: While Donald Trump’s presidential victory has dominated global headlines, several key election results outside the United States could have significant impacts on international markets going forward in 2025.

ClearBridge Investments: Opportunities continue to be widespread across the infrastructure landscape, with strong fundamentals and the market still massively underestimating the growth in electricity demand driven by AI and data growth.

The potential of AI and data growth to drive significant infrastructure investment represents an emerging long-term thematic driver for the listed infrastructure asset class, according to ClearBridge Investments.

While the emergence of generative AI has sparked debate and uncertainty, ClearBridge Investments believes long-term investors should focus on the fundamental value proposition of software in driving business efficiency and innovation.

ClearBridge Investments believes reshoring and improving efficiencies leaves high-quality less-than-truckload (LTL) companies and rail stocks attractively positioned for a macro rebound.

According to research from ClearBridge Investments, infrastructure has historically outperformed global equities over several time periods after the last rate hike.

ClearBridge Investments believes regulated utilities are entering into an elevated capex cycle over the coming decades, and regulators are broadening their allowed returns to help utilities finance that growth.

ClearBridge Investments: While public funding for renewables may face increasing policy risk, regulators will continue to provide attractive returns for regulated utilities supporting the energy transition.

ClearBridge Investments: The accelerating pace of power demands among AI aspirants is underappreciated and will involve a rising pull on already stretched energy resources.

ClearBridge Investments: Infrastructure’s inflation pass-through worked well in 2023, supporting earnings, while its defense and diversification could make it valuable in 2024.

Despite challenging global economic and market conditions, there are compelling opportunities within global listed infrastructure, according to Shane Hurst, Portfolio Manager with ClearBridge Investments. He explores how the trends of decarbonization, reshoring and 5G evolution are impacting the space, and how the nature of listed infrastructure can offer some insulation against high inflation.

ClearBridge Investments: Infrastructure’s defensiveness and ability to provide long-term capital growth make it stand out in an environment of macroeconomic uncertainty and higher bond yields.

ClearBridge Investments believe infrastructure’s focus on cash flows and underlying earnings makes it a prudent investment as economic conditions deteriorate, and a recession looms.

ClearBridge Investments: In markets, money is energy—and flow, not form, drives the cycle between fear and greed.

ClearBridge Investments: Ambitious capital spending on generative AI projects by hyperscalers, which we view as a once-in-a-decade cycle, represents a meaningful tailwind for technology infrastructure providers supplying the picks and shovels to run large language models.

US equities underperformed global markets in the first six months of 2025, but continue to trade at a premium to foreign markets. ClearBridge Investments outlines the case for global diversification.

ClearBridge Investments believes macro and technological shifts are driving a wider dispersion of outcomes, highlighting the need for active management.

ClearBridge Investments believes tariffs remain the key risk to corporate profits in the second half of the year and is less concerned about geopolitical events or the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy.

ClearBridge Investments believes significant state-supported investment in research and development, combined with established life science infrastructure, is bolstering the rapid growth of a Chinese biotechnology industry.

ClearBridge Investments believes dividend growers possess three attributes for an environment marked by inflation and policy risk: potential for downside protection, current income and growth.

ClearBridge Investments: Since the pandemic, the volatility of returns between growth and value has surged, which we believe is emblematic of a shift toward a new, value-led market regime.

ClearBridge Investments: While the new US administration’s policies are creating uncertainty in sustainability issues, particularly for tax-reliant wind and solar, many sustainable business criteria remain unchanged.

ClearBridge Investments believes massive fiscal reforms in Europe and resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war could help close the leadership gap between the United States and the rest of the world.

ClearBridge Investments believes the drivers of strong performance for midstream energy infrastructure in 2024 look to be just as relevant for 2025 and beyond.

ClearBridge Investments: Sam Peters suggests valuation excesses remain hidden, but are quickly growing too large to ignore, creating three distinct 2025 possibilities: Goldilocks, cyclical inflation and recession.

ClearBridge Investments: Portfolio Manager Michael Clarfeld looks beyond the first-order effects of the Republican sweep to understand the second-order effects on corporate earnings and valuation multiples.

ClearBridge Investments: Our expectation is that 2025 will be a more modest but positive year given ample liquidity, healthy corporate profits and animal spirits that have been buoyed by expectations of a pro-growth, deregulatory agenda.

ClearBridge Investments believes emerging market equities have turned a corner, showing strong performance after years of lagging returns.

ClearBridge Investments believes emerging market equities have turned a corner, showing strong performance after years of lagging returns.

Just as during bushfire season, there are important risks that income-focused investors such as retirees should consider planning for in their portfolios, well before ever changing market conditions could turn them into a potential disaster for your income stream.

For those who remember the fable of The Emperor’s New Clothes, the story is as relevant to markets today as it was to human nature centuries ago. Those without genuine value exposures in Australia could find themselves standing bare.

Addressing the growing challenges that investors are facing in their Australian Equity allocation with an active fundamental solution.